Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
35%
HighconfidenceES Tunis are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WLWDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while ES Sahel are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and eS Tunis hold a 18.1-point power-rating edge (73.0 v 54.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely result in the Ligue 1, favouring a draw with 34.9% confidence, a 16% BTTS chance and 10% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
34.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ES TunisWLWDD
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
ES SahelLWLLW
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ES TunisES Sahel
50.0Attack28.8
81.8Defence81.8
80.3Form48.5
73.0Power54.9
0.75xG0.33