Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ES Tunis · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: ES Tunis 0-1 Asswehly, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
ES Tunis 1-0 Asswehly
Original prediction
ES Tunis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 77.8% | 41.0% | -36.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.77 | 15.8% | 26.6% | 10.9 pts |
| Away | 14.20 | 6.4% | 32.4% | 26.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-36.8 pts
Projected Score
ES Tunis 0–1 Asswehly
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
ES Tunis
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
ES Tunis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ES TunisLWWWL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AsswehlyWWW
GF 5 · GA 0 · avg 1.67/0.00
BTTS 0/3O2.5 1/3
ES TunisAsswehly
0.0Attack55.6
66.7Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
23.7Power87.0
0.79xG1.19