Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ES Tunis · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: ES Tunis 0-0 AS Marsa, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
ES Tunis 2-1 AS Marsa
Original prediction
ES Tunis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 77.3% | 48.5% | -28.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.36 | 16.7% | 27.1% | 10.4 pts |
| Away | 14.87 | 6.0% | 24.4% | 18.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.7 pts
Projected Score
ES Tunis 0–0 AS Marsa
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
ES Tunis
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
ES Tunis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ES TunisLWWLW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AS MarsaDLDLW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ES TunisAS Marsa
66.7Attack0.0
16.7Defence83.3
50.0Form16.7
47.8Power36.5
1.11xG0.86