ES Sahelvs
ES Metlaoui
COMPLETEDTunisia · Ligue 1 · 8/30/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ES Sahel · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: ES Sahel 0-0 ES Metlaoui, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
ES Sahel 2-1 ES Metlaoui
Original prediction
ES Sahel
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 60.8% | 43.3% | -17.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 25.5% | 29.4% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 6.65 | 13.7% | 27.2% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.4 pts
Projected Score
ES Sahel 0–0 ES Metlaoui
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
ES Sahel
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
ES Sahel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ES SahelLLWLL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ES MetlaouiLDLWW
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
ES SahelES Metlaoui
66.7Attack0.0
0.0Defence66.7
0.0Form0.0
23.7Power23.7
1.06xG0.88