ES Hammam-Soussevs
US Ben Guerdane
COMPLETEDTunisia · Ligue 1 · 10/17/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
US Ben Guerdane · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: ES Hammam-Sousse 0-1 US Ben Guerdane, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
ES Hammam-Sousse 0-2 US Ben Guerdane
Original prediction
US Ben Guerdane
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.3% | 25.9% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.65 | 33.9% | 29.3% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 31.8% | 44.8% | 13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.0 pts
Projected Score
ES Hammam-Sousse 0–1 US Ben Guerdane
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
US Ben Guerdane
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
US Ben Guerdane has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20