Erzurumspor FKvs
Samsunspor
COMPLETEDTurkey · Süper Lig · 9/20/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Samsunspor · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Samsunspor
Original prediction
Samsunspor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 36.4% | 36.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 30.0% | 26.6% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 2.78 | 33.6% | 36.9% | 3.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Samsunspor
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Samsunspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20