Erzgebirge Auevs
Union Berlin
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 1/5/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Berlin · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Erzgebirge Aue are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Union Berlin are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Union Berlin hold a 5.0-point power-rating edge (44.4 v 49.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Union Berlin holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 88% BTTS chance and 91% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Union Berlin
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Union Berlin has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80