Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erokspor · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Esenler Erokspor are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDLW), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Sarıyer are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Sarıyer hold a 3.9-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 49.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.8% in the 1. Lig, while Esenler Erokspor holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 43% BTTS chance and 34% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erokspor
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
14.8%
Erokspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60