Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ermis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ermis 1-2 PAEEK
Original prediction
Ermis
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 30.4% | 42.8% | 12.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 30.6% | 27.4% | -3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.30 | 39.0% | 29.8% | -9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Ermis
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Ermis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ErmisWWWLL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PAEEKLDLDD
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ErmisPAEEK
66.7Attack66.7
100.0Defence0.0
100.0Form0.0
88.7Power23.7
1.92xG1.08