Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Erlbach are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Sonthofen are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold an 8.9-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 49.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.1% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40