Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Erlbach are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Sonthofen are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold an 8.9-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 49.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.1% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40