Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Erlbach are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Kottern are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 28.3-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 30.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.3% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
63.3%
Model confidence
63.3%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40