Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Erlbach are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Kottern are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 28.3-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 30.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 63.3% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 63% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
63.3%
Model confidence
63.3%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80