Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Erlbach are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWLWD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Ismaning are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 20.9-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 37.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.8% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80