Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Erlbach are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (DWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Ismaning are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 20.9-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 37.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 54.8% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00