Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Erlbach are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Grünwald are 2W-0D-1L in their last 3 (LWW), averaging 3.33 scored and 2.67 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 8 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold a 22.1-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 36.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 66.3% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
66.3%
Model confidence
66.3%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 3.33/2.67