Eritreavs
South Africa
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/30/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
South Africa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eritrea 0-5 South Africa
Original prediction
South Africa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.45 | 9.7% | 32.0% | 22.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.46 | 16.8% | 25.9% | 9.1 pts |
| Away | 1.25 | 73.5% | 42.1% | -31.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-31.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
South Africa
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
South Africa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.25/0.75
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00