Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erbil · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Erbil 2-0 Diyala
Original prediction
Erbil
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 50.8% | 50.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.5% | 26.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.98 | 22.6% | 23.5% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
Erbil
Probability
50.4%
Model confidence
50.4%
Erbil has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ErbilDWWDW
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
DiyalaLDDLW
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
ErbilDiyala
40.0Attack60.0
93.3Defence33.3
73.3Form33.3
70.9Power45.2
1.61xG0.88