Erbilvs
Al Minaa Basra
COMPLETEDIraq · Iraqi League · 8/31/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erbil · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Erbil 2-0 Al Minaa Basra
Original prediction
Erbil
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.74 | 51.7% | 41.6% | -10.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.7% | 28.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 4.37 | 20.6% | 30.0% | 9.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.74 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Erbil
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Erbil has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ErbilWD
GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/0.50
BTTS 1/2O2.5 0/2
Al Minaa BasraWW
GF 5 · GA 1 · avg 2.50/0.50
BTTS 1/2O2.5 2/2
ErbilAl Minaa Basra
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24