Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Erbil 0-0 Al-Karma, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Erbil 1-2 Al-Karma
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 34.0% | 33.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.63 | 34.2% | 32.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.83 | 31.8% | 33.9% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Projected Score
Erbil 0–0 Al-Karma
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.4%
Model confidence
33.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ErbilWDWWD
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
Al-KarmaWWWDW
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ErbilAl-Karma
44.4Attack61.1
94.4Defence77.8
77.8Form77.8
74.0Power73.7
0.91xG0.95