Erbaasporvs
Aliağa FAŞ
COMPLETEDTurkey · 2. Lig · 10/3/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erbaaspor · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Erbaaspor 2-4 Aliağa FAŞ
Original prediction
Erbaaspor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 17:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.05 | 29.8% | 38.3% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.0% | 25.2% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 45.3% | 36.5% | -8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Erbaaspor
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Erbaaspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40