Equatorial Guineavs
Sierra Leone
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/28/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Equatorial Guinea · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone
Original prediction
Equatorial Guinea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.6% | 38.4% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.8% | 29.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 3.58 | 25.6% | 32.5% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Equatorial Guinea
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Equatorial Guinea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80