Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Honka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
EPS 0-1 Honka
Original prediction
Honka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.77 | 18.9% | 21.7% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.41 | 20.5% | 18.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 60.6% | 60.2% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.49 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–18%
Predicted outcome
Honka
Probability
60.2%
Model confidence
60.2%
Honka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EPSWWWWW
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
HonkaDWWWL
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EPSHonka
75.4Attack100.0
52.6Defence68.4
61.4Form77.2
62.8Power78.4
1.53xG2.57