Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Envigado · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Envigado are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Popayan are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Envigado hold a 20.5-point power-rating edge (63.2 v 42.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 21.0% in the Primera B, while Envigado holds the strongest overall chance at 60% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 28% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Envigado
Probability
59.8%
Model confidence
21.0%
Envigado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40