Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Envigado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Envigado 1-0 Orsomarso, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
Envigado 0-0 Orsomarso
Original prediction
Envigado
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 55.6% | 45.9% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.6% | 30.6% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 5.13 | 17.8% | 23.6% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Projected Score
Envigado 1–0 Orsomarso
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Envigado
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Envigado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EnvigadoWDDDL
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
OrsomarsoLDLLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
EnvigadoOrsomarso
44.8Attack27.8
70.8Defence62.5
56.3Form36.1
58.9Power44.2
1.13xG0.42