Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Envigado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Envigado 1-0 Leones FC, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Envigado 1-1 Leones FC
Original prediction
Envigado
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 55.1% | 56.4% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.7% | 25.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 4.99 | 18.2% | 17.9% | -0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.40 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Projected Score
Envigado 1–0 Leones FC
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Envigado
Probability
56.4%
Model confidence
56.4%
Envigado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EnvigadoDLLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Leones FCLLLDW
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EnvigadoLeones FC
44.8Attack19.7
69.0Defence45.5
56.3Form27.3
58.5Power34.0
1.69xG0.38