Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Envigado · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Envigado 1-0 Depor FC, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Envigado 3-0 Depor FC
Original prediction
Envigado
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:18 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 65.0% | 49.7% | -15.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.3% | 28.1% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 7.15 | 12.7% | 22.2% | 9.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.3 pts
Projected Score
Envigado 1–0 Depor FC
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Envigado
Probability
49.7%
Model confidence
49.7%
Envigado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EnvigadoDDDLL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Depor FCLWWWW
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
EnvigadoDepor FC
43.0Attack33.3
69.9Defence51.4
54.8Form31.9
57.8Power41.1
1.41xG0.52