Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kaluga · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Enisey 2-0 Kaluga
Original prediction
Kaluga
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:37 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 44.8% | 32.8% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 2.89 | 32.1% | 29.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.01 | 23.1% | 38.2% | 15.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Kaluga
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Kaluga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EniseyLDWLD
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
KalugaDLLLD
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EniseyKaluga
33.3Attack88.9
66.7Defence88.9
33.3Form100.0
45.3Power90.7
1.04xG1.58