World · World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · 10/13/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
England W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
England W 5-0 Greece W
Original prediction
England W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.02 | 92.5% | 56.0% | -36.6 pts |
| Draw | 16.36 | 5.8% | 22.1% | 16.3 pts |
| Away | 54.43 | 1.7% | 22.0% | 20.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-36.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
England W
Probability
56.0%
Model confidence
56.0%
England W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60