Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
England · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
England 2-3 Spain
Original prediction
England
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.50 | 27.1% | 44.6% | 17.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 27.3% | 24.3% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 2.08 | 45.6% | 31.0% | -14.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
England
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
England has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EnglandWWLDW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SpainWDDWD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EnglandSpain
88.9Attack83.3
83.3Defence50.0
83.3Form73.3
82.8Power70.5
2.07xG1.28