Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
England · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
England 3-0 Czechia
Original prediction
England
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.11 | 86.1% | 64.9% | -21.2 pts |
| Draw | 9.65 | 9.9% | 19.6% | 9.8 pts |
| Away | 23.34 | 4.1% | 15.5% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.11 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
England
Probability
64.9%
Model confidence
64.9%
England has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EnglandWWLWW
GF 15 · GA 3 · avg 3.00/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
CzechiaLLLWW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EnglandCzechia
100.0Attack22.2
66.7Defence22.2
66.7Form0.0
71.7Power20.2
2.25xG0.80