Energie Cottbusvs
1. FC Nürnberg
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/16/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Nürnberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (7%), 1-2 (7%), 2-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Energie Cottbus 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg
Original prediction
1. FC Nürnberg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.59 | 26.1% | 25.1% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 22.2% | 19.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 51.8% | 55.4% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–37%
- 2.1–27%
- 3.2–37%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Nürnberg
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
1. FC Nürnberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60