Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Emmen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Emmen are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Jong AZ are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Emmen hold a 29.6-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 50.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.4% in the Eerste Divisie, while Emmen holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Emmen
Probability
48.8%
Model confidence
11.4%
Emmen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20