Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Emmen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Emmen 1-0 FC OSS
Original prediction
Emmen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 58.5% | 57.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.9% | 19.9% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 4.74 | 19.5% | 22.6% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Emmen
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Emmen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EmmenLLWLW
GF 10 · GA 13 · avg 2.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
FC OSSWLLWL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
EmmenFC OSS
81.0Attack38.1
19.0Defence42.9
57.1Form28.6
53.4Power38.0
2.77xG1.61