Emmenvs
De Graafschap
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 9/11/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Emmen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 4-1 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Emmen 1-2 De Graafschap
Original prediction
Emmen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.88 | 49.9% | 61.5% | 11.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 23.1% | 18.9% | -4.1 pts |
| Away | 3.47 | 27.0% | 19.6% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.4–18%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Emmen
Probability
61.5%
Model confidence
61.5%
Emmen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EmmenWLWWW
GF 15 · GA 12 · avg 3.00/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
De GraafschapLLLLD
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EmmenDe Graafschap
100.0Attack33.3
20.0Defence0.0
80.0Form6.7
67.3Power17.5
3.58xG1.37