Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Emelec · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Emelec 0-0 Manta FC, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Emelec 1-0 Manta FC
Original prediction
Emelec
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.7% | 49.4% | -8.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.5% | 31.1% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 5.44 | 16.8% | 19.4% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.3 pts
Projected Score
Emelec 0–0 Manta FC
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Emelec
Probability
49.4%
Model confidence
49.4%
Emelec has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EmelecDWLWD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Manta FCLWLLW
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
EmelecManta FC
28.6Attack20.2
60.7Defence51.2
42.9Form23.8
46.3Power34.6
0.93xG0.52