Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Emelec 0-0 Libertad, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Emelec 1-2 Libertad
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 55.7% | 36.3% | -19.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 26.2% | 32.0% | 5.8 pts |
| Away | 5.04 | 18.1% | 31.7% | 13.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Projected Score
Emelec 0–0 Libertad
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.0%
Model confidence
36.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EmelecLWDWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LibertadLWDLW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
EmelecLibertad
27.8Attack36.7
62.2Defence62.2
43.3Form45.6
46.7Power50.4
0.67xG0.76