Emelecvs
Leones del Norte
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro · 8/30/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Emelec 0-0 Leones del Norte, with an exact score probability of 28%.
Prediction record
Final result
Emelec 2-1 Leones del Norte
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 51.0% | 31.3% | -19.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.6% | 33.5% | 5.0 pts |
| Away | 4.48 | 20.5% | 35.2% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.0 pts
Projected Score
Emelec 0–0 Leones del Norte
Exact score probability: 28%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
33.5%
Model confidence
35.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EmelecLWDLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Leones del NorteLWLDL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
EmelecLeones del Norte
26.9Attack34.6
60.3Defence67.9
41.0Form48.7
45.0Power52.1
0.54xG0.77