Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Emelec are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Huracan are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Emelec hold a 10.9-point power-rating edge (52.5 v 41.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.5% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 33% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60