GGOALVIO

World · CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 3/10/2023, 12:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Emelec are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (LWWL), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Deportivo Cuenca are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Emelec hold a 5.2-point power-rating edge (52.5 v 47.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 16% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

45.3%

Model confidence

45.3%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

EmelecLWWL

GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.50/1.00

BTTS 2/4O2.5 2/4
Deportivo CuencaLWLDW

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EmelecDeportivo Cuenca
33.3Attack28.6
66.7Defence66.7
48.5Form42.9
52.5Power47.3
0.80xG0.60
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