Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Emelec are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (LDDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Danubio are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Emelec hold a 5.9-point power-rating edge (52.5 v 46.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60