Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Raufoss · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elverum 0-3 Raufoss
Original prediction
Raufoss
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.13 | 22.0% | 35.1% | 13.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.6% | 25.6% | 4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.62 | 56.4% | 39.3% | -17.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.62 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Raufoss
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Raufoss has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ElverumLDWWW
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
RaufossWLLLL
GF 5 · GA 18 · avg 1.00/3.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
ElverumRaufoss
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.89xG1.61