Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elverum · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 4-2 (7%), 4-1 (7%), 5-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elverum 4-3 Lyn II
Original prediction
Elverum
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 77.7% | 69.3% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 6.79 | 13.3% | 14.8% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 10.04 | 9.0% | 15.9% | 6.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.4–27%
- 2.4–17%
- 3.5–27%
Predicted outcome
Elverum
Probability
69.3%
Model confidence
69.3%
Elverum has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ElverumWLWLL
GF 14 · GA 12 · avg 2.80/2.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
Lyn IIDLDLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ElverumLyn II
92.4Attack71.2
45.5Defence28.8
66.7Form47.0
66.6Power49.0
4.50xG2.15