Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elverum · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-1
Elverum are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Fram are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DLDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Elverum hold a 33.2-point power-rating edge (66.6 v 33.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.7% in the 3. Division - Girone 6, while Elverum holds the strongest overall chance at 83% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 90% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Elverum
Probability
83.0%
Model confidence
9.7%
Elverum has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60