Elvavs
Tallinna Kalev
COMPLETEDEstonia · Cup · 9/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 3-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elva 3-2 Tallinna Kalev
Original prediction
Elva
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.79 | 32.1% | 40.9% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 27.9% | 25.0% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 2.23 | 40.0% | 34.0% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–17%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.3–16%
Predicted outcome
Elva
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
Elva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ElvaDWLWW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Tallinna KalevDLDLL
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ElvaTallinna Kalev
100.0Attack100.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
97.5Power100.0
2.57xG1.99