Eltham Redbacks FCvs
Melbourne Knights
COMPLETEDAustralia · Victoria NPL 2 · 8/30/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Melbourne Knights · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Eltham Redbacks FC 2-2 Melbourne Knights
Original prediction
Melbourne Knights
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 46.2% | 33.2% | -12.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.4% | 21.7% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.04 | 29.5% | 45.1% | 15.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.68 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Melbourne Knights
Probability
45.1%
Model confidence
45.1%
Melbourne Knights has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20