Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zrinjski · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Čelik 0-3 Zrinjski
Original prediction
Zrinjski
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 19:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.08 | 14.7% | 12.7% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.3% | 20.5% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 61.0% | 66.8% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.47 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Zrinjski
Probability
66.8%
Model confidence
66.8%
Zrinjski has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ČelikDDWLD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ZrinjskiWWWDW
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ČelikZrinjski
40.7Attack85.2
55.6Defence74.1
33.3Form88.9
44.7Power82.4
0.66xG2.01