Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Čelik · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Čelik 3-0 Velež
Original prediction
Čelik
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:58 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.6% | 35.9% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.4% | 28.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 30.0% | 35.6% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.21 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Čelik
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Čelik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ČelikLLLWD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
VeležWLLLL
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
ČelikVelež
22.2Attack33.3
33.3Defence44.4
0.0Form33.3
22.9Power39.0
1.17xG1.27