Elgin Cityvs
Stranraer
COMPLETEDScotland · League Two · 9/19/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elgin City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Elgin City 1-5 Stranraer
Original prediction
Elgin City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 44.7% | 45.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.6% | 24.3% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.17 | 28.7% | 30.4% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Elgin City
Probability
45.3%
Model confidence
45.3%
Elgin City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00