League CupLeague Cup
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 14:57
Elgin City

Elgin City

Home
LL
01
Full time
Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock

Away
D
Borough Briggs
GoalVio prediction
Too close to call
No clear favourite

The model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.

Elgin City35%
Draw35%
Kilmarnock30%
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Elgin City
35%
Draw
35%
Kilmarnock
30%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Elgin City
34
Kilmarnock
9
Defence
Elgin City
6
Kilmarnock
91
Momentum
Elgin City
0
Kilmarnock
33
Danger (xG)
Elgin City
0.90
Kilmarnock
0.00
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Elgin City)
0.90
avg per match
xG for (Kilmarnock)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Elgin City)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Kilmarnock)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Elgin CityElgin City
LL
KilmarnockKilmarnock
DW

Probability breakdown

37% confidence
Elgin City35%
Draw35%
Kilmarnock30%

Elgin City leads with 35% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Elgin City head into this in League Cup fixture at Borough Briggs in mixed form (LL), while Kilmarnock arrive in mixed form (D). Elgin City have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Kilmarnock over 1 games.

The model rates Elgin City's attack at 34/100 against a 91/100 Kilmarnock defence, and Kilmarnock's attack at 9/100 against a 6/100 Elgin City backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

Elgin City have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 1 home games. They average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per home match. Kilmarnock have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

There is no head-to-head data between Elgin City and Kilmarnock in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Elgin City to win with 37% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Elgin City 3537%, Draw 3500%, Kilmarnock 2962%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Elgin City

Elgin City

L
vs Peterhead
14 Jul 2026
13
L
@ Raith Rovers
11 Jul 2026
13
Kilmarnock

Kilmarnock

D
vs Raith Rovers
14 Jul 2026
00
W
vs Dundee
12 May 2026
31

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Elgin City vs Kilmarnock?

GoalVio's model predicts Elgin City to win with 37% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Elgin City vs Kilmarnock?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Elgin City vs Kilmarnock?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elgin City vs Kilmarnock?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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